The Origin

• Developed by futurist Joseph Voros
• Built in the early 2000s
• Adapts futures thinking to a range
• Maps outcomes by plausibility and probability

Probable Futures

• Map the most likely outcomes
• Base them on current trends
• Weigh the strongest evidence
• Treat as your default expectation

Plausible Futures

• Include outcomes within possibility
• Accept they may be unlikely
• Stretch beyond the obvious path
• Keep them in the planning frame

Preferable Futures

• Name outcomes you hope for
• Accept none are guaranteed
• Pursue them deliberately
• Separate hope from forecast

Unlikely & Beyond

• Track improbable but possible outcomes
• Note the preposterous edges
• Never dismiss them entirely
• Remember the improbable still happens

Scan The Horizon

• Gather wide-ranging signals
• Pull in diverse perspectives
• Collect early weak signals
• Question your assumptions

Plot & Prioritize

• Place insights across the cone
• Range from preposterous to probable
• Identify the key uncertainties
• Focus on what matters most

Act & Adapt

• Make decisions with the range in view
• Stress-test plans against scenarios
• Monitor for changes
• Adjust as conditions shift