What Threats Are

• Recognize external sources of potential harm
• Know they exist whether you act or not
• Observe, detect, and anticipate them
• Identify and understand each one

Threat Examples

• Map enemy personnel and patrols
• Account for surveillance and CCTV systems
• Expect comms intercept and SIGINT
• Plan for K9 units and environmental hazards

What Risks Are

• Treat risk as harm made possible by conditions
• Tie it to your context and decisions
• Influence, reduce, or accept each one
• Assess and prioritize before acting

Calculating Risk

• Estimate probability of the threat landing
• Gauge the impact if it does
• Factor in your exposure
• Combine likelihood, impact, and exposure

How They Work Together

• Map all threats in the environment
• Analyze mission, terrain, timing, and assets
• Assess each risk from exposure
• Prioritize the greatest dangers, then act

Operator Application

• Scan continuously to stay aware
• Hold discipline; noise and patterns kill
• Adapt routes, methods, and mindset
• Accept calculated risks, avoid needless ones